Evaluating Progress of China’s New Urbanization Plan

BENJAMIN TOPA, Harvard College '21

THURJ Volume 12 | Issue 2

Abstract

This paper examines the relationship between China’s 2014-2020 New-Type Urbanization Plan (NTUP), designed to help
the Chinese Government direct urban development, and economically sustainable—inclusive, consumption-driven,
and ultimately self-reinforcing—urbanization and growth. It begins by surveying the history and political economy
of urbanization in China to identify migratory patterns and consumption spending as key variables China must (and
does) consider as it designs policies seeking to chart urbanization. The paper then identifies the Hukou internal passport
system as the most important tool NTUP proposes using to manipulate migratory and consumptive patterns to achieve
balanced urbanization. Having laid out the structures of China’s urbanization concerns and NTUP, the study analyzes
economic trends and Hukou policy reforms throughout NTUP in two mid-size cities: Dongguan, Guangdong and Yingkou,
Liaoning. The key finding is that more sustainable urbanization has coincided with less liberal Hukou reform in Dongguan; conversely, less sustainable urbanization has coincided with more liberal Hukou reform in Yingkou. This finding
is taken as an indication that sustainable urbanization may be more closely tied to variables exogenous to NTUP (such
as pre-existing economic conditions) than it is to NTUP and related Hukou reform. Acknowledging the limitations of
my own research, I propose a future investigation that could more definitively establish or rule out causal links among
NTUP policy, migration, consumption, and economic growth.