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RESEARCH

Distance, Diaspora, and Demographics: Examining post-2022 Ukrainian Refugee Settlement

Diana Nichvoloda, Harvard College ’27

DOI:

THURJ Volume 16 | Issue 2

Abstract

This paper examines what drives Ukrainian refugees’ destination choices in the a1ermath of Russia’s 2022 invasion by analyzing (1) which host country characteristics predict refugee in2ows and (2) how refugee demographics relate to distance traveled and the size of host country Ukrainian diasporas. Using OECD, UNHCR, and UNDESA data, we 3nd that geographic distance and preexisting Ukrainian migrant stock are the main determinants of where refugees settle, while macroeconomic and governance indicators play minimal roles. Using microdata from the August 2022 UNHCR Survey, we show that younger, highly educated respondents tend to travel farther, while larger households and those with intact housing remain closer to Ukraine. Refugees from Eastern Ukraine, as well as those expressing an intention to return permanently, tend to settle in countries with larger diasporas. 0ese results highlight the central role of accessibility and preexisting networks, rather than economic opportunity, in shaping the settlement patterns of forced migrants.

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